Thursday, December 29, 2011

Follow This Model And Never Worry About Your Financial Life

Once upon a time, I was only focused on two things: Savings and Investments.
Savings
I think most of us especially when we are just beginning to earn are inclined to put our hard earned money in banks usually in the form of fixed deposits. There is nothing wrong with this practice if not for INFLATION.
In Economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services over a period of time. Simply put, a liter of gasoline now is around 50 pesos whereas 5 years ago, it was averaging at 42 pesos. I can still remember enjoying a chickenjoy meal at Jollibee for 100 pesos back in the days when I was still working at the Port of Manila, but now 5 years later, a chickenjoy meal will cost you 150 pesos. That is a whopping 50% increase in price and sadly a reduction in buying power on my part. This is the reason why I am not recommending you put all your money in banks.
A general rule to follow is 100 minus your age. Say you are 30 years old, that means 70% of your money should be deployed in an investment vehicle that will at least give a return of 7% per year. Why 7%? Because inflation in the Philippines is around 4%-6% on average per year, hence, you should target to outperform that. Note that this is just a guideline, you may follow a different model that will suit your appetite for risk and reward but personally, I follow such principle.
Investing
When salary comes at the end of the month, I used to invest everything in the stock market and mutual funds. This is what I used to do and then I realize that nothing is left. One day it occurred to me, what if there is an emergency? Will I be liquid enough so that I don’t touch my savings and investments? Am I sufficiently insured? Are all my dependents protected? Is my Family secured? I may have some savings and my investment portfolio may have been properly diversified, but if my cash position is inadequate to tide myself or my family over during the rainy days, then I am facing a huge risk of liquidating my investments. And selling an investment in a depressed market is a big NO.
What is the right model then?
Insurance-Emergency Funds-Savings and Investments
Insurance
I am never a big fan of insurance until I realized the true cost of my responsibility. To calculate your insurance requirement, all you have to do is multiply your current income by 12 and multiply it again by 10. Example, current income 100,000 x 12 = 1.2 million x 10 = 12 million. This means that 12 million is the insurance amount that you need to protect your monthly income in case you are unable to provide it. Why 12 million? It is based on the assumption that the 12 million will be deposited by your family in an investment that can earn 10% per year giving your family in this example an annual income of 1.2 million or 100,000 per month.
Emergency funds
A good rule of thumb would be 3-6 times of your monthly income. If your income is too high, you can begin with 3 months. This is something that you will use in case you lose your job or for whatever reason, the monthly income stops.
Savings and Investments
I personally believe that for as long as you are properly insured and liquid enough to cover any emergency, you may save and invest whatever the surplus is. A universal rule in personal finance is allotting 20% of your total income into savings and investments. Of course, the bigger the number, the better.
One day when your savings and investments are in millions, you will not be needing an insurance. But for the time being, while your savings and investments are growing, protect it with an insurance.
Thank you for reading this post and I hope you will share it with your friends.

Anselm Reyes
PS. If you have questions about investing in the stock market and mutual funds or anything about personal finance, you may email me at anselmreyes@yahoo.com



Friday, August 19, 2011

Long Term Investors celebrate when the world stock markets tumble


It is a fact that 85% of people who are investing in the stock market do not succeed. Why? Because they are all Traders. Traders are people who time the market to do their buying and selling on an hourly or daily basis. There are Traders who buy on impulse without doing the due diligence of analysing whether a company is earning and has a great outlook. There are Traders who buy when the market is up and sell when the market goes tumbling down. This strategy breaks one of our cardinal rules as Long Term Investors because we Long Term Investors observe a minimum holding period of 10 years.

I have been contemplating about giving you a review of the fundamentals of investing, I guess now is the perfect time. The reason is that the world markets again tumbled this morning, actually it began in the US yesterday. Below is a snapshot of the numbers:

World Stock Market Indices as of 19 August 2011
Stock Market Index
Location
Points Drop
%age Drop
Dow Jones Industrial
United States
-419.63
-3.68%
S&P 500
United States
-53.24
-4.46%
Brazil Bovespa
Brazil
-1,938.92
-3.52%
Canada S&P/TSX 60
Canada
-23.62
-3.28%
Santiago Index IPSA
Chile
-79.96
-1.89%
IPC
Mexico
-802.95
-2.36%
FTSE 100
England
-127.41
-2.50%
CAC 40
France
-84.95
-2.76%
DAX
Germany
-199.51
-3.56%
Swiss Market Index
Switzerland
-137.29
-2.64%
Australia ASX
Australia
-147.50
-3.41%
Shanghai SE Composite
China
-25.11
-0.98%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
-616.35
-3.08%
Mumbai Sensex
India
-328.12
-1.99%
Nikei 225
Japan
-224.52
-2.51%
Taiwan TSEC 50
Taiwan
-272.01
-3.57%
PSEi
Philippines
-63.64
-1.45%
FTSE Bursa KLCI
Malaysia
-23.93
-1.59%
Jakarta Composite
Indonesia
-184.39
-4.59%
KOSPI Index
South Korea
-115.70
-6.22%
SGX
Singapore
-29.58
-4.59%
Source: CNN Money

If you are a Trader, the numbers above will compel you to do two things: One, sell at a loss to secure some cash, two, sell at a loss to invest in gold. I am not surprised why gold has posted again a record high of $1,855/ounce. I am not surprised why everyone is running away from equities and finding refuge in bonds and other fixed income instruments.

However, if you are a Long Term Investor, you must be celebrating like me. Because you and I know that the best time to buy is when there is a crisis. The key is to spot companies with great fundamentals, earnings and positive outlook.

You may be thinking that my portfolio is immune to crisis but the answer is NO. Below is a summary of my portfolio including my consolidated mutual fund accounts with First Metro, Philequity and Philam Asset Management:

My Portfolio as of 19 August 2011
Investment
%age of Gain-Loss
Remark
Citiseconline account
+1.55%
From +7% YTD, down by 5.45% since US downgrade (02-Aug-11)
First Metro Securities account
-2.88%
Since US downgrade (02-Aug-11)
Mutual Fund Accounts
+2%
From +5% YTD, down by 3% since US downgrade (02-Aug-11)

On average, my portfolio sank by 3% to 4% and it will remain that way for the next 3 to 6 months. Nonetheless, I am taking bold steps to buy when there is a crisis for I believe that companies with good valuations will self-correct when the dust settles.

To prove this, let us take a look at the “self-correction” of the following stocks after the great crisis of 2008. I have done a comparative analysis between the lowest price of a stock during that time and its price today. This is to illustrate the power of the so called “Value Buy” which is buying shares of companies where the intrinsic value is a lot cheaper than the current market price. In layman’s term, buying GREAT Companies at discounted prices and in stock market investing, huge discounting usually happens when there is a crisis.

Stock Code
Company
Lowest price during the 2008 recession (Price per share)
Price per share as of 18 August 2011
% Growth
MBT
Metrobank
20.00
73.80
269.00%
ALI
Ayala Land
6.00
15.92
165.33%
FPH
First Philippine Holdings
18.00
57.60
220.00%
AP
Aboitiz Power
3.90
29.40
653.85%
EDC
Energy Development Corp.
1.50
5.80
286.67%
DMC
DMCI Holdings Inc.
3.95
41.20
943.04%
SM
SM Investments
180.00
540.00
200.00%
SMC
San Miguel Corporation
40.00
124.60
211.50%
TEL
PLDT
2,000.00
2,332.00
16.60%
JFC
Jollibee Foods Corp.
35.00
86.95
148.43%
MPI
Metro Pacific Investments
2.25
3.31
47.11%
AC
Ayala Corporation
155.00
315.00
103.23%
BDO
Banco de Oro
22.00
59.00
168.18%
BPI
Bank of the Philippine Islands
34.25
58.55
70.94%
MED
Megaworld
0.70
1.90
171.43%
AGI
Alliance Global Inc.
1.98
10.80
445.45%
FLI
Filinvest Inc.
0.40
1.17
192.50%
RLC
Robinsons Land
4.30
12.26
185.11%
SCC
Semirara Mining Corp.
35.00
210.40
501.14%
PX
Philex Mining
4.95
27.90
463.64%

Using the average method, the above companies in the span of 3 years posted an aggregate growth of 273.16% or 91.00% per annum. Meaning, if you have 1 million pesos to invest in 2008 and you took advantage of the crisis by buying these companies, the total value of your investment today will be 6.9 million pesos. However, you can argue that we cannot really predict when the market will reach its lowest point. That is also correct and that is also the reason why I have always been recommending that one should apply the “peso cost averaging” method by investing equal amount each month. For example, if you have an annual income of 120,000 pesos and you decide to invest it in the stock market, you basically divide it by 12 months and invest each unit every month. By doing so, you can buy more shares when the market is on a downtrend specifically when there is a crisis like what we are experiencing now.

I would like to remind you though that before you put your money in the stock market or any other investment vehicles, you should always maintain a cash cushion amounting to 3-6 months salary for emergencies. Ofcourse, bigger cash is always better. Do not make the mistake of investing without securing your emergency fund first. Crisis will always come, hence, your emergency fund will allow you to weather the crisis without touching your investments.

The world markets may be crumbling as a result of the US and Eurozone downgrade by some rating agencies. But as Long Term Investors, we do not react on news, we do not react when the stock market plunges. Infact, we should be buying in a crashing market. For as long as the companies that we buy are fundamentally good and we are convinced that these companies will be there for the next 100 years, then continue to invest in these companies every month for the next 10 to 20 years.

To your financial success,
Anselm Reyes

For your questions about investing, you may email me at anselmreyes@yahoo.com
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